Hurricane Fiona The Atlantic is the strongest hurricane of the season, and forecast models now show that a developing storm could pose a monstrous threat to the US Gulf Coast by next week.
According to the National Hurricane Center, an area of disorganized activity a few hundred miles east of the eastern reaches of the Caribbean Sea will become the next tropical storm — in the next few days, perhaps in the next few hours — over the next few days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
This small group of storms gets the attention of meteorologists because both American and European forecast models have shown them to be consistent. Evolving in a tropical system and entering the Gulf of Mexico – although models don’t have the best track record when making predictions that far.
“The fact is, almost every computer model develops it into a west-moving storm,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.
It has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours, and a 90% chance of developing within the next five days, the hurricane center says. So there’s potential for growth — but where it’s headed is still somewhat up for debate.
“Well, there’s a lot of uncertainty right now,” Hurricane Center spokeswoman Maria Torres told CNN. “But yeah, it’s something we’re monitoring and we’re monitoring closely as we approach the weekend and early next week.”
Over the next several days, the disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward toward the southern Windward Islands – along the eastern edge of the Caribbean – and then toward the central Caribbean Sea, later in the week, the hurricane center said Wednesday morning.
By the end of next week, both models show the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico.
The US model shows the storm as a large and potentially large storm. It shows it is making landfall in the Florida panhandle by September 30. European models show it to have hit southern Florida the day before, as a much smaller but almost intense hurricane.
If the storm system makes it into the Gulf as forecast models say, conditions are ripe for development.
“The water is extremely hot, and the atmosphere is very conducive to rapid growth,” Myers said.
Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are conducive to strengthening the systemAnd it will do so much faster, Torres told CNN.
It has been a slow start to what was forecast to be an above average hurricane season. Only one hurricane has entered US territory, and no hurricane has made landfall or threatened the United States.
Now, a week before the peak of hurricane season, the tropics have woken up, and forecasters are concerned that people have let their guard down.
“After a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season has accelerated,” tweeted Colorado State University (CSU) research scientist Phil Klotzbach.
“People let their guard down and think, Oh yeah, we’re out of the woods,” Torres said. “But really, the season is on. We’re still in September; we still have October. Whatever builds up over the Atlantic or the Caribbean, that’s something we need to monitor very closely. ”
The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.
Four times a day, the US forecast model and the European model offered an updated forecast. And after each run, meteorologists would tweet what they think would happen.
No problem, if you live in the Caribbean, Florida, and other states along the Gulf Coast, pay attention and see what the National Hurricane Center says when hurricane names get so strong. The track it releases at that point will give a good indication of what is most likely to happen.