Will lowering the age of the NBA draft and eliminating one-off eras help or hurt college basketball?

College basketball is already in an era of transition, as looser transfer restrictions and the advent of the name, image and likeness era have changed the calculus in roster construction. Now, another important change may be in the actions that can have a significant impact at the top of each recruiting class.

The NBA and NBPA could potentially lower the minimum age for draft eligibility from 19 to 18 by 2024, according to the report, In short, the move would mean players could again jump straight from high school basketball to the NBA without a one-year stop elsewhere. Since 2005, singles players have become a staple of college hoops as they regularly viewed a season on a university campus as the best way to bridge the essential gap between high school and professional ranks.

So what will this mean for college basketball? The game has survived a lot in recent years, and that development looks like just the latest curveball. So for this edition of Dribble Handoff, our team of writers is looking at whether they think a potential change in the minimum draft age will be good or bad for college basketball.

College Basketball May Hurt, But Will Be OK

I think it’s clear that losing the so-called one-and-done rule will do more harm to college basketball than help, we’ll start missing out on some of the best preparation talent every year again — that is, the next edition of Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Jason Tatum, Carmelo Anthony, Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Lonzo Ball and any other prospect gifted enough to convince the NBA franchise to spend a first-round pick on him after high school. It’s not great. But I’m still in favor of eliminating this rule because a) college basketball will be fine, and b) it’s just the right thing to do.

It has been proven time and again that top high school prospects are perfectly capable of succeeding through the pre-to-pro route. From 1995 to 2005—otherwise known as the 11-year window, during which preparatory prospects regularly entered the NBA draft before the one-and-a-half rule began to prevent it—a franchise Used the first round pick on exactly 29 high school players. At least five of those players (and maybe six depending on what you think of Immortal’a Stoudemire) will end up as Naismith Memorial Hall of Famers. And eight out of 29 made at least one NBA All-Star team. In other words, if you spent a first-round pick on a high school player between 1995 and 2005, there was a better than 20% chance that you were getting a future Hall of Famer, and a 27.6% chance that you would get at least one. Had been. Future NBA All-Star. It’s an incredible hit-rate and proof that the pre-to-pro era that brought Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard into the NBA is, broadly, great for prospects and franchises to join. was. Last time was fine. This time it will be fine. And, more than anything, it would represent a system that is once again more correct and fair. — Gary Parisho

NBA age limit significantly increased the star power of college hoops

Keep your eyes on the list of players below. These are prospects since 2006 who ranked in the top 10 in their graduating class from high school and/or were highly drafted one-and-a-half-American talents playing just one season of college basketball. It’s safe to guess that the overwhelming majority would have gone straight to the NBA if allowed. Instead, college basketball had them as the stars for one season.

The list is long; that’s the point.

Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Eric Gordon, Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Jew Holiday, Demar DeRozan, John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Favres, Lance Stephenson, Kyrie Irving, Tobias Harris, Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers, Michael Kidd – Gilchrist, Bradley Beale, Nerlens Noel, Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randall, Aaron Gordon, Jabari Parker, D’Angelo Russell, Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Karl-Anthony Towns, Goth Okafor, Lonzo Ball, Jason Tatum, DE Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Malik Monk, Trey Young, Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III, Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Vernon Carey Jr., Anthony Edwards, Cole Anthony, Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley Jr., Scotty Barnes, Jalen Suggs , Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero.

On that list of 48 players are National Champion, National Player of the Year, National Freshman of the Year, All-American, Program Changing Talents. No, they didn’t last long in college. Yes, they grew to the power of the sport in an era when college hoops needed as much name recognition and star power as it needed to garner.

I’m skeptical about how quickly this rule change will actually happen because it has long been the position of the NBA Players Association not to revert to prior protocol. And a ESPN reports from Monday It also indicated that if that changes, we may wait a little more than 2024. Still, it may be the “right” thing to make an NBA rule change, but it will undeniably damage the product of college basketball in the process if and when it comes to pass. don’t believe me? Read that list of names again. — Matt Norlander

more college stars will be in school

I firmly believe that ending the old fashioned will be a net positive for college hoops. There will initially be a noticeable brain drain—about three true newcomers per year have been All-Americans over the past decade, most of whom were one-on-one—but the game will eventually recover to reclaiming an old one. demographic and easily evolves into a new era. It will likely have a more recognizable name living longer and cashing in on bigger pieces of the NIL pie, which in turn will be a boon to the game. The ruthless roster churn of one-on-one eras is partly why I think general interest in the game has waned in recent years; Which can be addressed directly with the Age Qualification Changes for the NBA Draft.

To be clear, another Kia era won’t really end. The amount of actual five stars would probably drop quite a bit, with unmistakable lottery chances flowing in college hoops — now Zion Williamson or Cade Cunningham won’t go to college when they can go into the top-five — but they won’t be entirely just because. Closes as the draft-eligible age falls below one year. Most likely, the one-and-one would simply exist in a different form—the true one-and-one era with increasing possibilities later stepped into a void reserved for the aristocratic elite.

As college basketball players and rosters grow up, I think the biggest unexpected positive outcome would be if the draft eligibility age changes. Sports flourish only when good players last long, leaving lasting memories on the game. The Tyler Hansbro Era in North Carolina. Adam Morrison era in Gonzaga. The JJ Reddick era in Duke. If elite talent doesn’t attend college or go to the NBA early, the game can lose more consistently than top-end talent, but the NBA can end up fringe players — or even just the good ones. College players who might not project well to the NBA – staying in the college ranks longer will be a win for the NBA and college basketball as both transition into a new, exciting era. — Kyle Boone

College Basketball Could Be More Competitive

Oh goodie. When college basketball overtook the death sentence handed down after the creation of G League Ignite and Overtime Elite, more news surfaced in what was believed to be doom for the game. don’t buy it Sure, the potential end of a more done era would make Tuesday night’s game between NC State and Duke more difficult for TV networks, but college basketball has always been more than the stars. As someone who loved college athletics in the late 1990s and early 2000s, it never mattered to me that Amar Stoudemire, LeBron James or Dwight Howard didn’t play college basketball. In fact, the endless praise and attention that college basketball would have placed on those players would have probably distracted an influential mind from the things that really make college basketball great.

Sports fans who need stars one-on-one by our 21st century hype machines to be interested in college basketball are not true fans of the sport. If losing a few of those casuals meant a few Weeknight games some low TV ratings, it would mean absolutely nothing. Football runs TV money, and fans of college basketball’s biggest fan bases are going to be watching regardless of who wears the uniform. This change can really increase the accuracy of the game. If a select few coaches can no longer rely on supreme talent advantage, this flattens the playing field and places a higher premium on planning and player development, winning the coaching profession little more than merit and little less than recruiting competition. Is. by the highest bidder.

The big threat to college basketball that needs attention right now is the potential for major changes to the NCAA Tournament. SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey is swimming Offers that could legitimately ruin the game. Changing the draft age is not one of them. — David Kobe

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